Calgary Real Estate Blog

As Alberta’s economy continues to sputter, with unemployment hitting levels we haven’t seen since the early eighties, one would expect our once heated real estate market to be cooling off big time. Listings are way up over last year as people look to downsize, leading to an abundance of selection from which buyers can choose. A surface reading would suggest prices should be dropping.

But they’re not. Calgary’s average prices for July and August were actually up year over year, with only a 15 percent increase in the average number of days properties are listed on the market.

So why would that be? Late last month the CBC ran an excellent article exploring this very issue. Based on information from the Department of Finance, the conclusion the article reaches is that much of the unemployment our province is experiencing has hit itinerant workers – meaning those who came from other provinces to fill jobs in Alberta – who weren’t homeowners here, and have since returned to their home provinces. This has the effect of limiting downward pressure on Alberta’s housing markets (while spiking the rental vacancy rates). Read the article for more in depth analysis.

If the economic downturn continues, of course, its impact on the real estate market could be more pronounced. For the moment, however, housing sales remain a relatively stable component of Alberta’s economy.

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Want to chat about selling your house, or looking to buy? Contact me!

If you’ve seen anything in the news about residential real estate lately, it’s probably been doom-and-gloom talk about how sales in January were down nearly 40 percent from January 2014 – you know, the year of record sales when I barely had time to grab a coffee between appointments many days. That kind of talk sells newspapers (at least, as much as newspapers sell these days) and plays nicely into the narrative that Alberta’s on the cusp of an economic apocalypse, but the truth is, the market’s doing just fine, and should continue to do so throughout the year.

We’ll likely continue to see lower year-over-year sales and price increases in residential homes over the next few months, which is to be expected: not only is the lower oil price slowing our economy, but Calgary went from a red hot sellers’ market early last year to a more balanced and sustainable one in the latter half. That balance – having the right number of properties for sale in relation to the number looking to buy – is ideal, and healthy. Without needing to rush buying decisions, but still having plenty of selection from which to choose, Realtors like myself can better help home buyers find homes that meet their needs and satisfy their wants. (For more on buyers’ vs sellers’ markets, and some consideration on when is the right time to sell your home, visit here.)

Despite the actual number of sales going down in January, there was both an increase in the number of properties listed and a healthy 7.7 percent increase in the year-over-year benchmark selling price. Nothing to worry about on that front.

Could the market slow down significantly? Sure, it’s possible, especially with the talk of major cuts across the board in the next provincial budget. People who were on the fence about selling and are now afraid prices are going to crater will go ahead and list their homes to beat the rush, while others may decide to downsize as their personal financial situation changes. And without a doubt, this year’s market won’t be nearly as hot as 2014’s. Still, as you’re reading or watching news stories about the dire future of Calgary real estate, take a moment to remember the solid fundamentals on which our housing market is based; there’s no bubble to be found here, which means there may be a slowdown, but there won’t be a crash.

Questions about the right time to buy and sell in our current economy? Contact me!

Also: the Calgary Home + Garden Show is quickly approaching, and organizers have sent out a Valentine’s Day promotion. To buy tickets for the event (taking place February 26-March 1 at the BMO Centre) and save $5 in the process, click here and use the promo code LOVE. Offer is valid until February 18.

We all know Alberta’s economy is leading the country growth-wise, but you might be surprised to find out our growth rate is nearly double the national average, and is a fair sight ahead of what was accomplished last year. No wonder, then, that the period from April 2013-2014 reportedly saw Calgary’s population increase more than ever before in the city’s history. Nearly 39,000 people became Calgarians, either through immigration or by being born, which is about 25 percent more than in 2012-2013. Alberta is the Land of Opportunity, with more than four million residents and counting.

That opportunity is certainly being seized by home builders: there were more new homes started between January and April of this year than in all of 2013.

Despite higher land costs and increased home prices, it’s still a seller’s market because demand is outdoing the supply. That may level off slightly in the coming year or so, but there’s not really any reason to think a major economic cool down is on the horizon; people will continue to flock to the home of the Greatest Outdoor Show on Earth.

According to a RE/MAX report released today, Calgary’s housing market appreciated by a significant amount over the past ten years – the average house price in the city jumped 108 percent, compared with the national average 15 percent lower. While the bulk of the gains were made in the first half of the decade thanks to the 2008 economic slowdown, the vast majority of property owners have seen a nice bump in their equity.

Will the next decade have similar gains in store? No one knows for sure but I’d say probably. Alberta’s economy is among the strongest in the country, despite some budgeting pain making the news lately, and the outlook is good for it to stay that way. For my money, Calgary’s a great market to get into right now.